Kautilya the Contemplator reports:
The Escalation Dilemma: Russia, NATO and the Erosion of the Old Deterrence Order
NATO's expanding gray-zone war against Russia may eventually pressure Moscow to cross increasingly dangerous deterrence thresholds in order to restore fear, credibility and strategic restraint.
If the West keeps on slicing the salami ever so thinly, it takes a while but pretty soon there is no salami left.
It seems clear that the West wants to provoke Russia to do something, anything, that can trigger an Article 5 NATO response and justify why all these countries are rushing to put their economies on a war-footing.
The flash point maybe Ukrainian drone strikes into Russia but it may also be in the Baltic States, Finland (stationing nuclear weapons) the Arctic or even the English channel.
Who knows but the Contemplator's conclusion seems almost inescapable.
Measures intended to reinforce deterrence can themselves become the next rung on the escalation ladder. The longer gray-zone warfare persists without a stable strategic equilibrium, the greater the possibility that Russia concludes symbolic warnings are no longer sufficient and that deterrence must instead be demonstrated through action.