John Mearsheimer recently discussed 'threat inflation' on the Judging Freedom show:
My take is that European leaders have long argued that Putin is an imperialist bent on conquering all of Ukraine and making it part of a greater Russia, and then attacking Eastern Europe. I see no evidence that Putin intends to do this, or that Russia has the capability to do it, but European elites believe otherwise. Very importantly, they recognize that Ukraine is faltering in the war and believe that Russia is likely to triumph, which means their worst nightmare is about to come true. In their view, Russia is on the march and NATO will have to stop it—which effectively means it is time to get ready for World War III.
It is beyond belief that European elites think that after 5 years or so of war with Ukraine, Russia is then going to turn around and invade Europe to take on NATO. Even Russia hawk Stubb does not believe that and Finland has form in terms of wars with Russia.
The reasons are obvious, as Mearsheimer and others have pointed out:
- Trump is lukewarm about NATO and needs the Russian 'threat' to keep him onside.
- European economies need a boost from 're-militarization' in the face of the Russian 'threat'.
- European military leaders see this as a chance to get all the new equipment they have always wanted to combat the Russian 'threat'.
- It gives many European countries an excuse to re-introduce conscription which is a great control mechanism to reduce dissent and protests.
- Europe's elites are going to look pretty silly when Russia wins in Ukraine and they have to roll-back all their lies, so they need the NATO 'threat' to stop this from happening.
Does that mean there is no Russian 'threat'? No of course not.
But is the threat from an Operation Barbarossa type invasion across Europe?
Surely even armchair generals in Wiltshire writing to The Times don't believe that!
Threat inflation is real and is going on daily in a European country near you and as usual the real question is: cui bono?